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A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the nation and caused chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.

That represents the warning from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion

The duo have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but very few politicians or activists want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. Each authors two articles that seek neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Discussions range over national emblems, levies, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and provoke discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be valid points on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.

Likelihood of Referendum

McBride considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a incompetent official who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the other's arguments."

Request for Broader Debate

Westminster must participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."